EU Elections – What implications for the Green Deal?

Between 6 and 9 June, Europeans voted to elect their future representatives in the European Parliament. While we are still awaiting the final results, we can already sense some of the implications.

The EU Green Deal train continues to steam ahead but the elections results will likely change its direction. This seems to be the first conclusion that we can draw from the win by Ursula von der Leyen’s EPP, the considerable losses by the Greens and Renew and the rise of the ECR and ID groups.

It is key for the energy and climate agenda that the centrist coalition in the European Parliament continues to retain its majority (EPP, S&D, Renew), but the coalition is now more fraught, weakened by the rise of the ECR and ID groups. We are therefore not currently in a scenario where the whole Green Deal agenda will be dismantled, but rather must confront the real risk of procrastination both on achieving existing targets, as well as enacting new legislation towards 2040 climate ambitions.

In this framework, the centrist coalition is expected to deploy all its political capital to reshape the narrative and advance the best possible energy/climate agenda during the next years. There is no other option than for these political groups to take the concerns of stakeholders seriously and pivot towards developing the ‘Green Industrial Deal’.

The Green Industrial Deal is a concept born out of frustration by some of the EU’s industry that so far, the EU Green Deal agenda has focused mostly on target-setting for 2030 but lacked attention for the preconditions for industry to achieve them. A lack of available public investment, but also concerns like permitting delays, supply chain issues and high energy prices have led to a considerable risk of de-industrialisation for the EU. Stakeholders (including EIGA which was amongst the first signatories) are therefore calling for an ‘Industrial Deal’ (e.g. the Antwerp Declaration) which continues to strive towards climate-neutrality but is more considerate of the conditions under which EU industry can thrive.

The European Commission has increasingly focused on green industrial policy since releasing the Green Deal Industrial Plan in 2023 but calls for a more holistic ‘Green Industrial Deal’ continue. This would, for example, include a reduction of regulatory burden, a new investment agenda, measures to further reduce energy prices and increased Single Market integration, including for infrastructure. The next European Commission President will ultimately shape the Green Industrial narrative, but the question is how effective he or she will be in convincing key Member States and political groups to support his or her vision.